All investors build their strategy on knowledge that is either inaccessible to others, or at least not known to everyone. Most often, such knowledge is certain insider information or various forecasts from certain experts in the exchange sphere. It is about the latter that today's article will be.
Pandemic, my pandemic!
In order to make a forecast, first of all, it will be necessary to name as objectively as possible the reasons for possible changes or market stability. Today, the most destabilizing factor, of course, can be called the pandemic, which for a little less than 2 years has been storming not only the headlines and people's thoughts, but also all the economies of the world.
Thus, the positive forecasts for the stock market were based primarily on the fact that towards the end of the summer in most developed economies, vaccination will lead to a large number of vaccinated citizens, which, accordingly, will somewhat remove existing restrictions and "untie the hands" of enterprises and businesses in various fields.
The second reason for the significant recovery was to be rapid development, which, according to market laws, occurs after the fall, due to the cyclical nature of the economy.
What's next?
These forecasts were effective exactly until mid-summer, after which the world media more and more often began to trumpet the emergence of a new strain of the virus here and there. The new realities have already forced many experts to change the optimism of their forecasts to a more pessimistic view, and some financiers are already preparing to play in the bear market and even shortened some positions.
The situation is especially acute with China, which already now, when there are quite a few cases of a new strain, pursues an extremely aggressive policy of combating the disease, and vaccination, unlike many world "panaceas", is practically useless in the new realities.
And some of the consequences of this process are already visible. So, on August 9, financiers recorded one of the largest drops in the cost of oil in recent times, a major consumer of which is the Chinese economy.
Also an important problem that causes increased market volatility, of course, can be called the trade war between the United States and the People's Republic of China. And while the Biden administration is likely to take some easing of this course, and the discussion is likely to move from the public to a more unspoken one, this factor, nevertheless, cannot be discounted.
Total
Today's global economic situation is quite unstable. Here and there there are all new forecasts of a global collapse and the detection of bubbles, but investors are no strangers to such a situation, because this is not just a negative agenda, but an increased opportunity to earn, albeit with great risk. Given that the financier can earn both on the growth and fall of the markets, it is worth extremely carefully considering the possibility of investing in a particular asset, both in a bull and bear market, because everything can turn out sharply, as in the situation with the delta strain.